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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."