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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.